Proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009”

St. Petersburg, September 21-25 2009.

Protecting the Earth against Collisions with Asteroids and Comet Nuclei

Editors:

Andrey M. Finkelstein (Russia)
Walter F. Huebner (USA)
Viktor A. Shor (Russia)

Abstract

The volume contains the proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009” held in St. Petersburg, Russia, September 21–25, 2009. The conference was held in the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The subjects of considerable discussion at the conference were the origin and physical nature of minor bodies of the Solar System that can collide with the Earth, detection and follow-up of such bodies and the devastating consequences of their collisions with planets and satellites. Special attention was paid to the dynamics of Earth approach of these bodies, predictions of dangerous collisions, and organization for protecting the Earth from collisions with dangerously large bodies (larger than about 25 m in diameter).

Papers presented in the Proceedings are of considerable interest for the Solar System science community and for all who are involved in study of small objects of the Solar System and in protecting the Earth against catastrophic collisions with celestial bodies.


	Program and Local committees	VIII
	Welcome speech by A. M. Finkelstein	X
	Preface	XII
A. M. Finkelstein, Yu. D. Medvedev, V. A. Shor	Our View of Objects of ACH-2009	2
G. V. Pechernikova, A. V. Vityazev.	Origin of the Small Solar System Bodies	9
D. F. Lupishko, Zh. A. Pozhalova	Physical Properties and Internal Structure of Near-Earth Objects	19
E. M. Drobyshevski	Electrolysis of Ices as a Key to Understanding of the Minor Bodies' Nature	29
F. A. Novikov, V. A. Shor, T. G. Vega, O. M. Kochetova, Yu. D. Medvedev, I. N. Netsvetaev, G. A. Netsvetaeva, U. N. Tihonova, N. B. Zheleznov	AMPLE 3 — Multi-purpose Software Package for Asteroids and Comets	32
V. V. Busarev, V. V. Prokofjeva-Mikhajlovskaya, A. N. Rublevsky	Spots on Asteroids as Evidence of Collisions	43
Yu. A. Chernetenko, A. V. Ivantsov	Masses of Asteroids 10 Hygiea and 152 Atala Obtained by the Dynamical Method	46
N. M. Gaftonyuk, Yu. N. Krugly, I. E. Molotov	Results of Photometric Observations of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids	49
P. Kankiewicz, I. Wodarczyk	Possible Origin of Asteroids on Retrograde Orbits	52
K. V. Kholshevnikov	Estimates for the Set-theoretic Distance between Orbits of Celestial Bodies	55
Yu. N. Krugly, N. M. Gaftonyuk, J. Durech, D. Vokrouhlicky, M. Kaasalainen, V. G. Shevchenko, M. A. Ibrahimov, A. L. Marshalkina, V. V. Rumyantsev, I. E. Molotov, Z. Donchev, V. Ivanova, A. V. Sergeyev, N. Tungalag	Detection of the YORP Effect from Photometric Observations of Near-Earth Asteroids	58
N. N. Gorkavyi, A. N. Rublevsky, V. V. Prokofjeva-Mihajlovskaya	The Sizes of Impact Craters and Ejecta Spots on Asteroids	62
V. A. Shefer	Method for High-accuracy Determinations of Orbits of Small Bodies from Three Observations	65
V. A. Shefer	Determination of an Intermediate Perturbed Orbit from Range and Range Rate Measurements at Three Time Instances	70
M. D. Zamarashkina	Improving the Orbital Parameters of Phobos and Deimos by Using the Universal Programming Complex ERA	75
E. I. Yagudina	Databases for Observations and Orbit Elements for Asteroids and Comets in ERA System	79
A. L. Garca	Automatic Detection of NEOs in CCD Frames	84
A. A. Golubov, Yu. N. Krugly	YORP: Influence on Rotation Rate	90
Yu. V. Batrakov, V. V. Prokofjeva-Mikhajlovskaya, L. G. Karachkina	The Small Libration of the Satellite in the System of the Asteroid 39 Laetitia	95
A. F. Zausaev, A. A. Zausaev, V. V. Abramov, S. S. Denisov	Database Development for Solar System Small Bodies' Orbital Evolution Based on Modern Mathematical Models and Methods	102
A. A. Berezhnoy	Analysis of the Systematic Errors of CCD-observations of Asteroids Performed in 2007 — 2008	107
M. S. Chubey, L. I. Yagudin, V. N. L'vov, S. D. Tsekmejster, V. V. Kouprianov, G. I. Eroshkin, E. A. Smirnov, A. V. Petrov	Solving of the ACH Problem in the Project "Interplanetary Solar Stereoscopic Observatory"	110
M. Kocer, M. Honkova, J. Ticha, M. Tichy	KLENOT Project — Contribution to Follow-up Astrometry of PHAs and VIs	115
V. V. Emel'yanenko	Short-Period Comets: Origin and Terrestrial Impact Hazard	120
Yu. S. Bondarenko, Yu. D. Medvedev	Method of Calculating Cometary Orbits	129
M. D. Zamarashkina, O. F. Ogneva	Nongravitational Effects on Cometary Motion due to Jupiter	134
M. G. Ishmukhametova, E. D. Kondrat'eva, V. S. Usanin.	Variation of Nongravitational Parameters for Comet Encke as a Result of its Decay	139
N. I. Perov, D. V. Kolesnikov	On the Problem of Searching for Undiscovered Cometary Families Colliding with Terrestrial Type Planets	146
Yu. S. Bondarenko	Electronic Catalogue of Comets "Halley"	152
O. G. Gladysheva	From the Tunguska Space Body to the Evolution of the Protoplanetary Nebula	157
N. V. Kulikova, V. I. Tischenko	Origin and Dynamic Evolution of Meteor Complexes in the Problem of Asteroid-Comet Hazard	164
E. N. Tikhomirova	Meteor Streams: the Relation to Hazardous Celestial Bodies	168
M. I. Gritsevich	Modern Dynamic Methods of Determination of Parameters of Meteor Bodies	174
G. A. Nikolsky, Yu. D. Medvedev, E. O. Schultz	The Tunguska Catastrophe is the Consequence of a Series of Explosions of Comet Nucleus Fragments	179
O. G. Gladysheva	Atmospheric Discharge in the Tunguska Disaster	184
T. Yu. Galushina, E. M. Drobyshevski, M. E. Drobyshevski	In Searching for Comet P/Tunguska-1908	189
V. A. Alekseev, N. G. Alekseeva, I. G. Golovnev, S. Yu. Zheltov, A. I. Morgachev, E. Ya. Fal'kov	Likely Impact Sites of Large Fragments of the Tunguska Cosmic Body	196
V. V. Svetsov	Consequences of Impacts of Cosmic Objects in Circumstances of Changing Climate	200
An. G. Marchuk, K. V. Simonov, S. A. Peretokin	Detection of Possible Impact Structures at the Bottom of the Ocean by Gravimetric and Magnetometric Data Processing	206
V. L. Masaitis	Prospective Zones of Damage Caused by the Popigai Impact Event	211
N. A. Makhutov, Yu. G. Matvienko, M. A. Bubnov	Hydrocode Modeling of a High-velocity Impact of an Asteroid Particle on a Steel Surface	216
L. A. Egorova, V. V. Lokhin	Destruction Models for Bodies Entering a Planetary Atmosphere	222
V. K. Gusiakov, Z. A. Lyapidevskaya	Expert Database on the Earth Impact Structures	228
V. A. Alekseev, V. V. Kopeikin, N. G. Alekseeva, L. Pelekhan	Georadar and Hydrogen Studies of the Tunguska Meteorite Craters	233
E. V. Pitjeva	Influence of Asteroids and Trans-Neptunian Objects on the Motion of Major Planets and Masses of the Asteroid Main Belt and the TNO Ring	237
D. K. Yeomans, S. R. Chesley, P. W. Chodas	NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office	244
L. K. Kristensen	Demands on Observation Campaigns for Accurate Predictions	255
Yu. D. Medvedev, A. S. Zabotin	Determination of Orbits and Dispersion Ellipsoids of Asteroids Potentially Hazardous for the Earth	262
P. Kankiewicz, I Wodarczyk	The Orbital Evolution of 2007 VA85, an Amor-type Asteroid on a Retrograde Orbit	268
V. A. Shor, Yu. A. Chernetenko, O. M. Kochetova	How Precise is the Orbit of (99942) Apophis and how Probable is its Collision with the Earth in 2036?	272
L. L. Sokolov, N. P. Pitjev, V. Sh. Shaidulin	About Zones of Resonant Returns of Asteroid Apophis	279
I. Wodarczyk.	Methods of Computing Impact Orbit	284
Yu. A. Chernetenko.	The Yarkovsky Effect in the Motion of NEAs	289
J. Desmars, J.- E. Arlot, A. Vienne	Estimating the Accuracy of Asteroid Ephemerides Using the Bootstrap Method	294
I. Wodarczyk	Paths of Risk of Selected Dangerous Asteroids	299
I. Wodarczyk	Impact Solutions for Asteroid (101955) 1999RQ	302
N. B. Zheleznov	The Study of the Probability of an Asteroid Collision with a Planet by Monte Carlo Method	305
A. W. Harris	Estimating the NEO Population and Impact Risk: Past, Present and Future	312
M. F. A'Hearn	Deep Impact and Deflection of NEOs	327
W. F. Huebner, D. C. Boice, P. Bradley, S. Chocron, R. Clement, A. Ghosh, P. T. Giguere, R. Goldstein, J. A. Guzik, L. N. Johnson, J. J. Keady, J. Mukherjee, W. Patrick, C. Plesko, M. Tapley, J. D. Walker, R. P. Weaver, K. Wohletz	The Engagement Space for Countermeasures Against Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs)	337
C. Maccone.	Description of a NASA Study to Deflect Hazardous Asteroids	347
A. V. Zaitsev, A. Koroteev, B. Liaschuk, S. Popov.	The Level of Rapid Response Reaction of the Planetary Defense System	362
V. A. Emelyanov, Yu. K. Merkushev	Design Parameters and Efficiency of a Space System for Warning about Small Celestial Bodies Approaching the Earth along Collision Trajectories	369
N. A. Makhutov, V. A. Puchkov, D. Reznikov, A. Taranov, A. V. Zaitsev	About Measures on Minimization of Damage from Collisions with Asteroids and Nuclei of Comets	376
Z. M. Ilitz	Rotational Mass Driver - an Efficient NEO Deflection Concept	381
J. J. Smulsky, Ya. J. Smulsky	Evolution of Apophis Orbit for 1000 Years and New Space Targets	390
A. V. Zaitsev, A. A. Klapovsky	On the Approach to Form Internati- onal-Legal Foundations to Ensure Planetary Defense	396
B. I. Semyonov, S. N. Torgovkin, V. V. Treckin, A. V. Zaitsev	About the Interaction of the "Citadel" Planetary Defense System with the Missile-Space Defense Systems	402
	The Resolution of the ACH-2009 Conference (doc)	407

Full proceedings

(PDF)

Proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009”

Abstract

Contents

Full proceedings