Estimating the Accuracy of Asteroid Ephemerides Using the Bootstrap Method

J. Desmars, J.- E. Arlot, A. Vienne

Protecting the Earth against Collisions with Asteroids and Comet Nuclei, In: A. M. Finkelstein, W. F. Huebner, V. A. Shor (Eds) Proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009”, StP: Nauka, 294–298 (2010)

Ключевые слова: Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Near Earth Objects (NEOs), accuracy of asteroid ephemerides, the bootstrap method, Toutatis, Apophis, close approach to Earth

Аннотация

The accuracy of solar system object ephemerides can be estimated by the bootstrap method. This method uses minimal assumptions on the observations. We apply the bootstrap method to two NEOs: Toutatis and Apophis. We provide an estimate of the accuracy of their ephemerides and an estimate of the accuracy of their next close approach to Earth