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## Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 49, 83–104 (2019)

Keywords: orbits, asteroids, collision of bodies with the Earth and the Moon, collision probability, strip of risk, table of approches

### Abstract

This article presents the general description and essential details of the software system “Prognoz” used by the IAA RAS to monitor possible collisions of the Earth and the Moon with potentially hazardous celestial bodies (PHB). The computer system includes the PHB catalog which is maintained to correspond to the MPC publications regarding new PHB discoveries and their data. The orbital parameters and their probable errors are determined independently from observations. Numerical Integration method is used to forecast the body motion taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to uncertainty of initial conditions of motion. As the celestial вodies approch the Earth or the Moon, the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated using the target plane method. In case the collision with the Earth of the body is expected in a nominal orbit, the geographical coordinates of the body’s entry point in the atmosphere, its azimuth and inclination of its trajectory to the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the rotating atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. In case the nominal orbit passes by the Earth, but the probability of collision is high, the strip of risk on the Earth›s surface is defined where collisions with the body are possible if the body does not move in its nominal orbit. Information obtained during few consecutive close approaches of bodies with the Earth and the Moon forms a basis to construct the graphs for the chronological table of approches displaying the most important information about each body and each event. The "Conclusion" describes this system’s development opportunities and possibilities of using it effectively.

### Citation

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V. А. Shor, D. Е. Vavilov, Т. А. Vinogradova, N. B. Zheleznov, А. V. Zaitsev, О. М. Коchеtоva, V. B. Кuznetsov, Yu. А. Chernetenko. Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2019. — Issue 49. — P. 83–104. @article{shor2019, abstract = {This article presents the general description and essential details of the software system “Prognoz” used by the IAA RAS to monitor possible collisions of the Earth and the Moon with potentially hazardous celestial bodies (PHB). The computer system includes the PHB catalog which is maintained to correspond to the MPC publications regarding new PHB discoveries and their data. The orbital parameters and their probable errors are determined independently from observations. Numerical Integration method is used to forecast the body motion taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to uncertainty of initial conditions of motion. As the celestial вodies approch the Earth or the Moon, the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated using the target plane method. In case the collision with the Earth of the body is expected in a nominal orbit, the geographical coordinates of the body’s entry point in the atmosphere, its azimuth and inclination of its trajectory to the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the rotating atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. In case the nominal orbit passes by the Earth, but the probability of collision is high, the strip of risk on the Earth›s surface is defined where collisions with the body are possible if the body does not move in its nominal orbit. Information obtained during few consecutive close approaches of bodies with the Earth and the Moon forms a basis to construct the graphs for the chronological table of approches displaying the most important information about each body and each event. The "Conclusion" describes this system’s development opportunities and possibilities of using it effectively.}, author = {V.~А. Shor and D.~Е. Vavilov and Т.~А. Vinogradova and N.~B. Zheleznov and А.~V. Zaitsev and О.~М. Коchеtоva and V.~B. Кuznetsov and Yu.~А. Chernetenko}, doi = {10.32876/ApplAstron.49.83-104}, issue = {49}, journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS}, keyword = {orbits, asteroids, collision of bodies with the Earth and the Moon, collision probability, strip of risk, table of approches}, pages = {83--104}, title = {Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon}, url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1972/}, year = {2019} } TY - JOUR TI - Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon AU - Shor, V. А. AU - Vavilov, D. Е. AU - Vinogradova, Т. А. AU - Zheleznov, N. B. AU - Zaitsev, А. V. AU - Коchеtоva, О. М. AU - Кuznetsov, V. B. AU - Chernetenko, Yu. А. PY - 2019 T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS IS - 49 SP - 83 AB - This article presents the general description and essential details of the software system “Prognoz” used by the IAA RAS to monitor possible collisions of the Earth and the Moon with potentially hazardous celestial bodies (PHB). The computer system includes the PHB catalog which is maintained to correspond to the MPC publications regarding new PHB discoveries and their data. The orbital parameters and their probable errors are determined independently from observations. Numerical Integration method is used to forecast the body motion taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to uncertainty of initial conditions of motion. As the celestial вodies approch the Earth or the Moon, the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated using the target plane method. In case the collision with the Earth of the body is expected in a nominal orbit, the geographical coordinates of the body’s entry point in the atmosphere, its azimuth and inclination of its trajectory to the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the rotating atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. In case the nominal orbit passes by the Earth, but the probability of collision is high, the strip of risk on the Earth›s surface is defined where collisions with the body are possible if the body does not move in its nominal orbit. Information obtained during few consecutive close approaches of bodies with the Earth and the Moon forms a basis to construct the graphs for the chronological table of approches displaying the most important information about each body and each event. The "Conclusion" describes this system’s development opportunities and possibilities of using it effectively. DO - 10.32876/ApplAstron.49.83-104 UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1972/ ER -