## “Prognoz” Program for the Prediction of Сollisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 1. Monitoring the Close Approaches and Collisions of Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 48, 100–112 (2019)

**DOI**: 10.32876/ApplAstron.48.100-112

**Keywords**:
collisions of bodies with Earth, collision probability, estimation methods of collision probability, orbits, asteroids.

### Abstract

The general description and the essential details of the monitoring of the potentially dangerous celestial body (PDB) collisions with the Earth and the Moon are presented. The monitoring is carried out in the IAA RAS by means of “Prognoz” program. The program maintains the PDB catalog corresponding to the MPC publications and the data on new PDB discoveries. Independent determination of orbital parameters and their probable errors are performed from observations. Forecasting of a body motion is carried out by numerical integration taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to the uncertainty of the initial motion conditions. At approchement of a body with the Earth or the Moon the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated by a target plane method. In the second part of this paper to be published in the next issue of Transactions of IAA RAS the following issues will be considered: the methods of calculating the trajectory parameters while entering the Earth atmosphere and the estimation of their accuracy, as well as the methods of calculating the collisions of bodies with the Moon and the strips of risk on the Earth surface in case the nominal orbit passes the Earth when the probability of the collision is high, and other tasks.

### Citation

`V. Shor, D. Vavilov, T. Vinogradova, N. Zheleznov, А. В. Зайцев, O. Kochetova, V. Kuznetsov, Y. Chernetenko. “Prognoz” Program for the Prediction of Сollisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 1. Monitoring the Close Approaches and Collisions of Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2019. — Issue 48. — P. 100–112.`

```
@article{shor2019,
abstract = {The general description and the essential details of the monitoring of the potentially dangerous celestial body (PDB) collisions with the Earth and the Moon are presented. The monitoring is carried out in the IAA RAS by means of “Prognoz” program. The program maintains the PDB catalog corresponding to the MPC publications and the data on new PDB discoveries. Independent determination of orbital parameters and their probable errors are performed from observations. Forecasting of a body motion is carried out by numerical integration taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to the uncertainty of the initial motion conditions. At approchement of a body with the Earth or the Moon the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated by a target plane method.
In the second part of this paper to be published in the next issue of Transactions of IAA RAS the following issues will be considered: the methods of calculating the trajectory parameters while entering the Earth atmosphere and the estimation of their accuracy, as well as the methods of calculating the collisions of bodies with the Moon and the strips of risk on the Earth surface in case the nominal orbit passes the Earth when the probability of the collision is high, and other tasks.},
author = {V. Shor and D. Vavilov and T. Vinogradova and N. Zheleznov and А.~В. Зайцев and O. Kochetova and V. Kuznetsov and Y. Chernetenko},
doi = {10.32876/ApplAstron.48.100-112},
issue = {48},
journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS},
keyword = {collisions of bodies with Earth, collision probability, estimation methods of collision probability, orbits, asteroids},
note = {russian},
pages = {100--112},
title = {“Prognoz” Program for the Prediction of Сollisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 1. Monitoring the Close Approaches and Collisions of Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon},
url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1960/},
year = {2019}
}
```

```
TY - JOUR
TI - “Prognoz” Program for the Prediction of Сollisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 1. Monitoring the Close Approaches and Collisions of Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon
AU - Shor, V.
AU - Vavilov, D.
AU - Vinogradova, T.
AU - Zheleznov, N.
AU - Зайцев, А. В.
AU - Kochetova, O.
AU - Kuznetsov, V.
AU - Chernetenko, Y.
PY - 2019
T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS
IS - 48
SP - 100
AB - The general description and the essential details of the monitoring
of the potentially dangerous celestial body (PDB) collisions with the
Earth and the Moon are presented. The monitoring is carried out in
the IAA RAS by means of “Prognoz” program. The program maintains the
PDB catalog corresponding to the MPC publications and the data on new
PDB discoveries. Independent determination of orbital parameters and
their probable errors are performed from observations. Forecasting of
a body motion is carried out by numerical integration taking into
account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of
coordinates and velocities due to the uncertainty of the initial
motion conditions. At approchement of a body with the Earth or the
Moon the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of
collision is estimated by a target plane method. In the second part
of this paper to be published in the next issue of Transactions of
IAA RAS the following issues will be considered: the methods of
calculating the trajectory parameters while entering the Earth
atmosphere and the estimation of their accuracy, as well as the
methods of calculating the collisions of bodies with the Moon and the
strips of risk on the Earth surface in case the nominal orbit passes
the Earth when the probability of the collision is high, and other
tasks.
DO - 10.32876/ApplAstron.48.100-112
UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1960/
ER -
```