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EOP prediction at data analysis center of RAN

Skurikhina E. A.

Известия ГАО в Пулкове, № 225: Труды Всероссийской астрометрической конференции «Пулково-2018», Санкт-Петербург, 111–116 (2018)

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The prediction of the parameters of the Earth's rotation (ERP) is especially important in the operational and super-operational determination of the ERP. At the same time, it is important to have your own forecast, since the release of the official number of emergency service bureau for determining and forecasting the ERP of the international service for determining the parameters of the Earth's rotation and reference systems (IERS) can sometimes unavailable. The Data Analysis Center of IPA RAS uses its own ERP forecast, which was developed and tested for the IAA ERP service in 1996. Since then, only minor changes have been made regarding the nutation forecast (and the coordinates of the celestial pole). The algorithm is distinguished by high reliability and acceptable forecast quality. The accuracy of the prediction has not been evaluated since its introduction into the ERP service. In this regard, in the light of the increasing requirements for the accuracy of determining the EOP, it has become necessary to estimate the real accuracy of the forecast used. In the work, the accuracy of the prediction of the ERP used in the IAA is estimated.