Forecasting rapproachments and collisions of celestial bodies with Earth and Moon carried out by «Prognoz» system

Shor V.А., Коchеtоva О.М., Zheleznov N.B., Vavilov D.Е., Vinogradova Т.А., Zaitsev А.V., Кuznetsov V.B., Chernetenko Yu.А.

Известия ГАО в Пулкове, № 225: Труды Всероссийской астрометрической конференции «Пулково-2018», Санкт-Петербург, 223–228 (2018)

Abstract

The general description and essential details of the collision monitoring of Earth and the Moon with potentially dangerous celestial bodies (PDB) which is carried out in the IAA RAS are stated. The computer system maintains the PDB catalog according to publications of the MPC list and data on discoveries and/or observations, independent determination of orbits and probable errors of initial conditions of motion, forecasting of motion of bodies taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to errors of initial conditions. At rapproachments of bodies with Earth or the Moon the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision by a target plane method is estimated. In case of collision with Earth of a body in a nominal orbit geographical coordinates of an entry point in the atmosphere, an azimuth and an inclination of a trajectory to the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. If the nominal orbit passes Earth, but the probability of collision is high, the strip of risk on the Earth's surface in which points collisions with a body are possible if it moves on the orbit other than nominal is defined. Information obtained during consecutive rapprochements of bodies with Earth and the Moon forms a basis for construction of lines of the chronological table of rapprochements with the most important information on each body and events. This table reflects the course of rapprochements in real time.