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The Probability of Collision or Close Approach of Two Space Objects

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 45, 14–19 (2018)

Keywords: The probability of collision, the probability of approach, asteroids, artificial Earth satellites, space debris.

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Abstract

The problem of assessing the probability of two space objects to collide with each other is well understood when one of the objects is a major planet of the Solar System, most often the Earth. So far, the orbits of the major planets are determined accurately enough for this task, therefore the position of the major planet at a particular moment can be considered to have zero uncertainty. In this paper, we consider the problem of the collision or a close approach of two bodies whose orbits cannot be regarded to have been determined precisely. A quick linear method is proposed to evaluate the probability of such events.

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D. E. Vavilov. The Probability of Collision or Close Approach of Two Space Objects // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2018. — Issue 45. — P. 14–19.

@article{vavilov2018,
  abstract = {The problem of assessing the probability of two space objects to collide with
each other is well understood when one of the objects is a major planet of the Solar
System, most often the Earth. So far, the orbits of the major planets are determined
accurately enough for this task, therefore the position of the major planet at a particular moment can be considered to have zero uncertainty. In this paper, we consider the problem of the collision or a close approach of two bodies whose orbits
cannot be regarded to have been determined precisely. A quick linear method is
proposed to evaluate the probability of such events.},
  author = {D.~E. Vavilov},
  doi = {10.32876/ApplAstron.45.14-19},
  issue = {45},
  journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS},
  keyword = {The probability of collision, the probability of approach, asteroids, artificial Earth satellites, space debris},
  pages = {14--19},
  title = {The Probability of Collision or Close Approach of Two Space Objects},
  url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1812/},
  year = {2018}
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - The Probability of Collision or Close Approach of Two Space Objects
AU  - Vavilov, D. E.
PY  - 2018
T2  - Transactions of IAA RAS
IS  - 45
SP  - 14
AB  - The problem of assessing the probability of two space objects to
collide with  each other is well understood when one of the objects
is a major planet of the Solar  System, most often the Earth. So far,
the orbits of the major planets are determined  accurately enough for
this task, therefore the position of the major planet at a particular
moment can be considered to have zero uncertainty. In this paper, we
consider the problem of the collision or a close approach of two
bodies whose orbits  cannot be regarded to have been determined
precisely. A quick linear method is  proposed to evaluate the
probability of such events.
DO  - 10.32876/ApplAstron.45.14-19
UR  - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1812/
ER  -