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## Precalculation of Celestial Bodies Colliding with the Moon and Places of Their Falling

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 42, 116–124 (2017)

Keywords: asteroids, comets, orbits, collisions with Moon, asteroid and comet hazard.

### Abstract

Predicting asteroid and comet collisions with the Moon has similar problems as the collisions with the Earth. Universal time of the event, the longitude and the latitude of a point of possible falling and the parameters of the velocity vector in the point of falling can be determined for each case of the collision. If the nominal orbit of the body goes past the Moon, but the probability of the collision is still rather high, then a particular strip-shaped risk area (“a strip of the risk”) on the Moon surface is calculated for observations. The points of possible falling (which form the strip of the risk) are looked for by building variations of the body’s mean motion and finding those values which lead to collisions with the Moon. We have constructed an example of a heliocentric orbit with an uncertain mean motion within a particular range which leads to collisions with the Moon along some strip of the risk.

### Citation

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N. B. Zheleznov, O. M. Kochetova, Yu. A. Chernetenko, V. A. Shor. Precalculation of Celestial Bodies Colliding with the Moon and Places of Their Falling // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2017. — Issue 42. — P. 116–124. @article{zheleznov2017, abstract = {Predicting asteroid and comet collisions with the Moon has similar problems as the collisions with the Earth. Universal time of the event, the longitude and the latitude of a point of possible falling and the parameters of the velocity vector in the point of falling can be determined for each case of the collision. If the nominal orbit of the body goes past the Moon, but the probability of the collision is still rather high, then a particular strip-shaped risk area (“a strip of the risk”) on the Moon surface is calculated for observations. The points of possible falling (which form the strip of the risk) are looked for by building variations of the body’s mean motion and finding those values which lead to collisions with the Moon. We have constructed an example of a heliocentric orbit with an uncertain mean motion within a particular range which leads to collisions with the Moon along some strip of the risk.}, author = {N.~B. Zheleznov and O.~M. Kochetova and Yu.~A. Chernetenko and V.~A. Shor}, issue = {42}, journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS}, keyword = {asteroids, comets, orbits, collisions with Moon, asteroid and comet hazard}, pages = {116--124}, title = {Precalculation of Celestial Bodies Colliding with the Moon and Places of Their Falling}, url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1753/}, year = {2017} } TY - JOUR TI - Precalculation of Celestial Bodies Colliding with the Moon and Places of Their Falling AU - Zheleznov, N. B. AU - Kochetova, O. M. AU - Chernetenko, Yu. A. AU - Shor, V. A. PY - 2017 T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS IS - 42 SP - 116 AB - Predicting asteroid and comet collisions with the Moon has similar problems as the collisions with the Earth. Universal time of the event, the longitude and the latitude of a point of possible falling and the parameters of the velocity vector in the point of falling can be determined for each case of the collision. If the nominal orbit of the body goes past the Moon, but the probability of the collision is still rather high, then a particular strip-shaped risk area (“a strip of the risk”) on the Moon surface is calculated for observations. The points of possible falling (which form the strip of the risk) are looked for by building variations of the body’s mean motion and finding those values which lead to collisions with the Moon. We have constructed an example of a heliocentric orbit with an uncertain mean motion within a particular range which leads to collisions with the Moon along some strip of the risk. UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1753/ ER -