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## Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036

Труды ИПА РАН, вып. 26, 3–16 (2012)

Ключевые слова: asteroid Apophis, collision with the Earth, the Yarkovsky effect

### Аннотация

Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036

### Цитирование

Текст
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RIS
Yu. Chernetenko, O. Kochetova, V. Shor. Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036 // Труды ИПА РАН. — 2012. — Вып. 26. — С. 3–16. @article{chernetenko2012, abstract = {Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036}, author = {Yu. Chernetenko and O. Kochetova and V. Shor}, issue = {26}, journal = {Труды ИПА РАН}, keyword = {asteroid Apophis, collision with the Earth, the Yarkovsky effect}, pages = {3--16}, title = {Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036}, url = {http://iaaras.ru/library/paper/891/}, year = {2012} } TY - JOUR TI - Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036 AU - Chernetenko, Yu. AU - Kochetova, O. AU - Shor, V. PY - 2012 T2 - Труды ИПА РАН IS - 26 SP - 3 AB - Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036 UR - http://iaaras.ru/library/paper/891/ ER -