Dynamical Generalizations of the Drake Equation: The Linear and Non-linear Theories
Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 22, 101–113 (2011)
Keywords: Extraterrestrial civilization, SETI and METI, Drake equation, communicative civilization, linear and non-linear demographic analysis
About the paperAbstract
The Drake equation pertains to the essentially equilibrium situation in a population of communicative civilizations (CCs) of the Galaxy, but it does not describe dynamical processes which can occur in it. The linear dynamical theory proposed in the paper is a simplest generalization of the Drake equation. An analysis based on real astrophysical data about star formation rate and on the linear dynamical theory predicts the existence of linear demographic waves in the Galaxy related to the maximum in the star-formation rate about five billion years ago and (possibly) to the origin of life in the Galaxy. The linear theory does not allow for the effect CCs have on each other. The non-linear theory that is also developed in the paper is a further generalization of the Drake equation. Non-linear theory allows for influence of CCs on each other by communication channels. It predicts important phenomena of a sharp phase transition from the "era of silence" to the "era of communication" in the Galaxy and of a bi-stability in the CC population in the relation to the probability of communication as a function of CC formation rate. Possible consequence is a possibility of existence of a very stable self-sustaining state of the CC population with high probability of communication for each CC after the phase transition. The problem is posed: is the Galaxy now in the state before the phase transition to the era of communication or after it? This problem discussed in the relation with the Fermi paradox.
Citation
А. Д. Панов. Dynamical Generalizations of the Drake Equation: The Linear and Non-linear Theories // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2011. — Issue 22. — P. 101–113.
TY - JOUR
TI - Dynamical Generalizations of the Drake Equation: The Linear and Non-linear Theories
AU - Панов, А. Д.
PY - 2011
T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS
IS - 22
SP - 101
AB - The Drake equation pertains to the essentially equilibrium situation
in a population of communicative civilizations (CCs) of the Galaxy,
but it does not describe dynamical processes which can occur in it.
The linear dynamical theory proposed in the paper is a simplest
generalization of the Drake equation. An analysis based on real
astrophysical data about star formation rate and on the linear
dynamical theory predicts the existence of linear demographic waves
in the Galaxy related to the maximum in the star-formation rate about
five billion years ago and (possibly) to the origin of life in the
Galaxy. The linear theory does not allow for the effect CCs have on
each other. The non-linear theory that is also developed in the paper
is a further generalization of the Drake equation. Non-linear theory
allows for influence of CCs on each other by communication channels.
It predicts important phenomena of a sharp phase transition from the
"era of silence" to the "era of communication" in the Galaxy and of a
bi-stability in the CC population in the relation to the probability
of communication as a function of CC formation rate. Possible
consequence is a possibility of existence of a very stable self-
sustaining state of the CC population with high probability of
communication for each CC after the phase transition. The problem is
posed: is the Galaxy now in the state before the phase transition to
the era of communication or after it? This problem discussed in the
relation with the Fermi paradox.
UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1267/
ER -