The Study of the Probability of an Asteroid Collision with a Planet by Monte Carlo Method

N. B. Zheleznov

Protecting the Earth against Collisions with Asteroids and Comet Nuclei, In: A. M. Finkelstein, W. F. Huebner, V. A. Shor (Eds) Proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009”, StP: Nauka, 305–311 (2010)

Ключевые слова: Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Near Earth Objects (NEOs), probability of an asteroid collision with a planet, Monte Carlo method, asteroid (99942) Apophis, close approach, estimates of encounter probability, orbit parameters in the covariance matrix, predicted collision probabilities

Аннотация

The close approach of asteroid (99942) Apophis to the Earth on April 13, 2029, and 2007 WD5 to Mars on January 30, 2008, have been researched taking into account the sets of observations giving maximal estimates of encounter probability. Our estimates of probability obtained by the Monte Carlo method resemble those published on the web site of JPL, NASA