About Zones of Resonant Returns of Asteroid Apophis

L. L. Sokolov, N. P. Pitjev, V. Sh. Shaidulin

Protecting the Earth against Collisions with Asteroids and Comet Nuclei, In: A. M. Finkelstein, W. F. Huebner, V. A. Shor (Eds) Proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009”, StP: Nauka, 279–283 (2010)

Ключевые слова: Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Near Earth Objects (NEOs), asteroid Apophis, zones of resonant returns, extremely dangerous NEO, scenarios of the Apophis' orbit dynamical evolution, the loss of precision after the Earth approach, possible trajectories of collisions with the Earth, quasi-random intermediate motions, resonant collision orbits, Everhart's integrator, Solar System model DE405, the region of initial conditions leading to the collisions

Аннотация

Asteroid Apophis is one of extremely dangerous NEOs. Different scenarios of the dynamical evolution of Apophis' orbit within the framework of today's knowledge are discussed. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the loss of precision after the Earth approach in 2029 and the possible approach in 2036. After 2036 Apophis' motion may not be determinable. Possible trajectories of collisions with the Earth have been found analytically and numerically in this chaotic region. To construct these trajectories we used quasi-random intermediate motions, made up from resonant collision orbits. The hazard trajectories are derived numerically using Everhart's integrator and Solar System model DE405. The size of the region of initial conditions leading to the collisions in 2040, 2041, 2042, 2044, 2047, 2051 is presented. The possibility of similar behavior of other NEO trajectories is discussed