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## Accuracy assessment of the UT1 prediction method based on 100-year series analysis

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 26, 34–38 (2012)

Keywords: Earth rotation, universal time, IERS, autoregression technique

### Abstract

A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole coordinates. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the variations of the Earth rotation parameters using all the data available for the last 80 100 years, and modified autoregression technique. In this presentation, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions computed making use of this method in 2006 2010 with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths.

### Citation

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Z. Malkin, V. Tissen, A. Tolstikov. Accuracy assessment of the UT1 prediction method based on 100-year series analysis // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2012. — Issue 26. — P. 34–38. @article{malkin2012, abstract = {A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole coordinates. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the variations of the Earth rotation parameters using all the data available for the last 80 100 years, and modified autoregression technique. In this presentation, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions computed making use of this method in 2006 2010 with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths.}, author = {Z. Malkin and V. Tissen and A. Tolstikov}, issue = {26}, journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS}, keyword = {Earth rotation, universal time, IERS, autoregression technique}, pages = {34--38}, title = {Accuracy assessment of the UT1 prediction method based on 100-year series analysis}, url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/895/}, year = {2012} } TY - JOUR TI - Accuracy assessment of the UT1 prediction method based on 100-year series analysis AU - Malkin, Z. AU - Tissen, V. AU - Tolstikov, A. PY - 2012 T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS IS - 26 SP - 34 AB - A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole coordinates. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the variations of the Earth rotation parameters using all the data available for the last 80 100 years, and modified autoregression technique. In this presentation, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions computed making use of this method in 2006 2010 with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths. UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/895/ ER -