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Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036

Yu. Chernetenko, O. Kochetova, V. Shor

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 26, 3–16 (2012)

Keywords: asteroid Apophis, collision with the Earth, the Yarkovsky effect

Abstract

Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036

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Yu. Chernetenko, O. Kochetova, V. Shor. Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036 // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2012. — Issue 26. — P. 3–16. @article{chernetenko2012, abstract = {Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036}, author = {Yu. Chernetenko and O. Kochetova and V. Shor}, issue = {26}, journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS}, keyword = {asteroid Apophis, collision with the Earth, the Yarkovsky effect}, pages = {3--16}, title = {Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036}, year = {2012} } TY - JOUR TI - Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036 AU - Yu. Chernetenko AU - O. Kochetova AU - V. Shor PY - 2012 T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS IS - 26 SP - 3 AB - Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036 ER -