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Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 26, 3–16 (2012)

Keywords: asteroid Apophis, collision with the Earth, the Yarkovsky effect

Abstract

Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036

Citation

Text

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RIS

Yu. Chernetenko, O. Kochetova, V. Shor. Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036 // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2012. — Issue 26. — P. 3–16.

@article{chernetenko2012,
  abstract = {Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not serve to increase the collision probability in 2036},
  author = {Yu. Chernetenko and O. Kochetova and V. Shor},
  issue = {26},
  journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS},
  keyword = {asteroid Apophis, collision with the Earth, the Yarkovsky effect},
  pages = {3--16},
  title = {Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036},
  url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/891/},
  year = {2012}
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Circumstances of (99942) Apophis' approaches to the Earth in 2029-2036
AU  - Chernetenko, Yu.
AU  - Kochetova, O.
AU  - Shor, V.
PY  - 2012
T2  - Transactions of IAA RAS
IS  - 26
SP  - 3
AB  -  Apophis orbital parameters have been improved on a basis of
observations taken during the time span of 20042011. The
corresponding probability of its impact on the Earth in 2036 was
proved to be vanishingly small. An attempt was made to reveal an
influence of additional accelerations on Apophis motion. In so doing
we consider A2 component of additional acceleration in orbital
coordinate system, which is present in many near-Earth asteroids and
some small main belt asteroids, as a manifestation of Yarkovsky
effect. Our attempts to evaluate A2 for Apophis from observations
using regularization process for solution of ill-conditioned systems
of normal equations as well as other methods make it possible to
conclude that A2 is positive. It means that Yarkovsky effect does not
serve to increase the collision probability in 2036
UR  - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/891/
ER  -