New orbit of asteroid Apophis and probability of its collision with the Earth in 2036
Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 21, 167–177 (2010)
Keywords: радиоинтерферометрия со сверхдлинными базами, астероид Апофис, столкновение с Землей, трансверсальная составляющая дополнительного ускорения, эффект Ярковского, замочная скважина, номинальная орбита
Abstract
The results of orbit improvement of asteroid (99942) Apophis from observations during 2004-2008 are presented. The results are correlated with orbit improvements fulfilled in JPL and Pisa University. Though estimations of precision of orbital elements differ significantly in three new solutions from one another, nevertheless one can conclude that the new orbits considerably reduce the collision probability of the asteroid with the Earth in 2036. Among the effects not taken into consideration in compared solutions the most significant is the Yarkovsky effect. In the paper the results of orbit improvement and calculations of collision probability with different values of A2 (the tangential component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system that can be treated as a manifestation of the Yarkovsky effect) are presented. That value of A which results in nominal orbit going through the middle of the keyhole that leads to collision in 2036 has been found. The probability of collision with this value of A is equal to 0.0022
Citation
Y. Chernetenko, V. Shor, O. Kochetova. New orbit of asteroid Apophis and probability of its collision with the Earth in 2036 // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2010. — Issue 21. — P. 167–177.
@article{chernetenko2010,
abstract = {The results of orbit improvement of asteroid (99942) Apophis from observations during 2004-2008 are presented. The results are correlated with orbit improvements fulfilled in JPL and Pisa University. Though estimations of precision of orbital elements differ significantly in three new solutions from one another, nevertheless one can conclude that the new orbits considerably reduce the collision probability of the asteroid with the Earth in 2036. Among the effects not taken into consideration in compared solutions the most significant is the Yarkovsky effect. In the paper the results of orbit improvement and calculations of collision probability with different values of A2 (the tangential component of additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system that can be treated as a manifestation of the Yarkovsky effect) are presented. That value of A which results in nominal orbit going through the middle of the keyhole that leads to collision in 2036 has been found. The probability of collision with this value of A is equal to 0.0022},
author = {Y. Chernetenko and V. Shor and O. Kochetova},
issue = {21},
journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS},
keyword = {радиоинтерферометрия со сверхдлинными базами, астероид Апофис, столкновение с Землей, трансверсальная составляющая дополнительного ускорения, эффект Ярковского, замочная скважина, номинальная орбита},
pages = {167--177},
title = {New orbit of asteroid Apophis and probability of its collision with the Earth in 2036},
url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/716/},
year = {2010}
}
TY - JOUR
TI - New orbit of asteroid Apophis and probability of its collision with the Earth in 2036
AU - Chernetenko, Y.
AU - Shor, V.
AU - Kochetova, O.
PY - 2010
T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS
IS - 21
SP - 167
AB - The results of orbit improvement of asteroid (99942) Apophis from
observations during 2004-2008 are presented. The results are
correlated with orbit improvements fulfilled in JPL and Pisa
University. Though estimations of precision of orbital elements
differ significantly in three new solutions from one another,
nevertheless one can conclude that the new orbits considerably reduce
the collision probability of the asteroid with the Earth in 2036.
Among the effects not taken into consideration in compared solutions
the most significant is the Yarkovsky effect. In the paper the
results of orbit improvement and calculations of collision
probability with different values of A2 (the tangential component of
additional acceleration in orbital coordinate system that can be
treated as a manifestation of the Yarkovsky effect) are presented.
That value of A which results in nominal orbit going through the
middle of the keyhole that leads to collision in 2036 has been found.
The probability of collision with this value of A is equal to 0.0022
UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/716/
ER -