## Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon

Transactions of IAA RAS, issue 49, 83–104 (2019)

**DOI**: 10.32876/ApplAstron.49.83-104

**Keywords**:
orbits, asteroids, collision of bodies with the Earth and the Moon, collision probability, strip of risk, table of approches

### Abstract

This article presents the general description and essential details of the software system “Prognoz” used by the IAA RAS to monitor possible collisions of the Earth and the Moon with potentially hazardous celestial bodies (PHB). The computer system includes the PHB catalog which is maintained to correspond to the MPC publications regarding new PHB discoveries and their data. The orbital parameters and their probable errors are determined independently from observations. Numerical Integration method is used to forecast the body motion taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to uncertainty of initial conditions of motion. As the celestial вodies approch the Earth or the Moon, the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated using the target plane method. In case the collision with the Earth of the body is expected in a nominal orbit, the geographical coordinates of the body’s entry point in the atmosphere, its azimuth and inclination of its trajectory to the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the rotating atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. In case the nominal orbit passes by the Earth, but the probability of collision is high, the strip of risk on the Earth›s surface is defined where collisions with the body are possible if the body does not move in its nominal orbit. Information obtained during few consecutive close approaches of bodies with the Earth and the Moon forms a basis to construct the graphs for the chronological table of approches displaying the most important information about each body and each event. The "Conclusion" describes this system’s development opportunities and possibilities of using it effectively.

### Citation

`V. А. Shor, D. Е. Vavilov, Т. А. Vinogradova, N. B. Zheleznov, А. V. Zaitsev, О. М. Коchеtоva, V. B. Кuznetsov, Yu. А. Chernetenko. Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon // Transactions of IAA RAS. — 2019. — Issue 49. — P. 83–104.`

```
@article{shor2019,
abstract = {This article presents the general description and essential details of the software system “Prognoz” used by the IAA RAS to monitor possible collisions of the Earth and the Moon with potentially hazardous celestial bodies (PHB). The computer system includes the PHB catalog which is maintained to correspond to the MPC publications regarding new PHB discoveries and their data. The orbital parameters and their probable errors are determined independently from observations.
Numerical Integration method is used to forecast the body motion taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the current values of coordinates and velocities due to uncertainty of initial conditions of motion. As the celestial вodies approch the Earth or the Moon, the minimum distance is calculated and the probability of collision is estimated using the target plane method.
In case the collision with the Earth of the body is expected in a nominal orbit, the geographical coordinates of the body’s entry point in the atmosphere, its azimuth and inclination of its trajectory to the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the rotating atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. In case the nominal orbit passes by the Earth, but the probability of collision is high, the strip of risk on the Earth›s surface is defined where collisions with the body are possible if the body does not move in its nominal orbit. Information obtained during few consecutive close approaches of bodies with the Earth and the Moon forms a basis to construct the graphs for the chronological table of approches displaying the most important information about each body and each event. The "Conclusion" describes this system’s development opportunities and possibilities of using it effectively.},
author = {V.~А. Shor and D.~Е. Vavilov and Т.~А. Vinogradova and N.~B. Zheleznov and А.~V. Zaitsev and О.~М. Коchеtоva and V.~B. Кuznetsov and Yu.~А. Chernetenko},
doi = {10.32876/ApplAstron.49.83-104},
issue = {49},
journal = {Transactions of IAA RAS},
keyword = {orbits, asteroids, collision of bodies with the Earth and the Moon, collision probability, strip of risk, table of approches},
pages = {83--104},
title = {Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon},
url = {http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1972/},
year = {2019}
}
```

```
TY - JOUR
TI - Software System “Prognoz” to Predict Collisions of Asteroids with the Earth and the Moon Part 2. Circumstances of Approaches and Collisions of Potentially Hazardous Celestial Bodies with the Earth and the Moon
AU - Shor, V. А.
AU - Vavilov, D. Е.
AU - Vinogradova, Т. А.
AU - Zheleznov, N. B.
AU - Zaitsev, А. V.
AU - Коchеtоva, О. М.
AU - Кuznetsov, V. B.
AU - Chernetenko, Yu. А.
PY - 2019
T2 - Transactions of IAA RAS
IS - 49
SP - 83
AB - This article presents the general description and essential details
of the software system “Prognoz” used by the IAA RAS to monitor
possible collisions of the Earth and the Moon with potentially
hazardous celestial bodies (PHB). The computer system includes the
PHB catalog which is maintained to correspond to the MPC publications
regarding new PHB discoveries and their data. The orbital parameters
and their probable errors are determined independently from
observations. Numerical Integration method is used to forecast the
body motion taking into account perturbations and uncertainty of the
current values of coordinates and velocities due to uncertainty of
initial conditions of motion. As the celestial вodies approch the
Earth or the Moon, the minimum distance is calculated and the
probability of collision is estimated using the target plane method.
In case the collision with the Earth of the body is expected in a
nominal orbit, the geographical coordinates of the body’s entry point
in the atmosphere, its azimuth and inclination of its trajectory to
the horizontal plane, velocity with respect to the rotating
atmosphere and their probable errors are defined. In case the nominal
orbit passes by the Earth, but the probability of collision is high,
the strip of risk on the Earth›s surface is defined where collisions
with the body are possible if the body does not move in its nominal
orbit. Information obtained during few consecutive close approaches
of bodies with the Earth and the Moon forms a basis to construct the
graphs for the chronological table of approches displaying the most
important information about each body and each event. The
"Conclusion" describes this system’s development opportunities and
possibilities of using it effectively.
DO - 10.32876/ApplAstron.49.83-104
UR - http://iaaras.ru/en/library/paper/1972/
ER -
```