Proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009”

St. Petersburg, September 21-25 2009.

Protecting the Earth against Collisions with Asteroids and Comet Nuclei


  • Andrey M. Finkelstein (Russia)
  • Walter F. Huebner (USA)
  • Viktor A. Shor (Russia)


The volume contains the proceedings of the International Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard-2009” held in St. Petersburg, Russia, September 21–25, 2009. The conference was held in the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The subjects of considerable discussion at the conference were the origin and physical nature of minor bodies of the Solar System that can collide with the Earth, detection and follow-up of such bodies and the devastating consequences of their collisions with planets and satellites. Special attention was paid to the dynamics of Earth approach of these bodies, predictions of dangerous collisions, and organization for protecting the Earth from collisions with dangerously large bodies (larger than about 25 m in diameter).

Papers presented in the Proceedings are of considerable interest for the Solar System science community and for all who are involved in study of small objects of the Solar System and in protecting the Earth against catastrophic collisions with celestial bodies.


Program and Local committees VIII
Welcome speech by A. M. Finkelstein X
Preface XII
A. M. Finkelstein, Yu. D. Medvedev, V. A. Shor Our View of Objects of ACH-2009 2
G. V. Pechernikova, A. V. Vityazev. Origin of the Small Solar System Bodies 9
D. F. Lupishko, Zh. A. Pozhalova Physical Properties and Internal Structure of Near-Earth Objects 19
E. M. Drobyshevski Electrolysis of Ices as a Key to Understanding of the Minor Bodies' Nature 29
F. A. Novikov, V. A. Shor, T. G. Vega, O. M. Kochetova, Yu. D. Medvedev, I. N. Netsvetaev, G. A. Netsvetaeva, U. N. Tihonova, N. B. Zheleznov AMPLE 3 — Multi-purpose Software Package for Asteroids and Comets 32
V. V. Busarev, V. V. Prokofjeva-Mikhajlovskaya, A. N. Rublevsky Spots on Asteroids as Evidence of Collisions 43
Yu. A. Chernetenko, A. V. Ivantsov Masses of Asteroids 10 Hygiea and 152 Atala Obtained by the Dynamical Method 46
N. M. Gaftonyuk, Yu. N. Krugly, I. E. Molotov Results of Photometric Observations of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids 49
P. Kankiewicz, I. Wodarczyk Possible Origin of Asteroids on Retrograde Orbits 52
K. V. Kholshevnikov Estimates for the Set-theoretic Distance between Orbits of Celestial Bodies 55
Yu. N. Krugly, N. M. Gaftonyuk, J. Durech, D. Vokrouhlicky, M. Kaasalainen, V. G. Shevchenko, M. A. Ibrahimov, A. L. Marshalkina, V. V. Rumyantsev, I. E. Molotov, Z. Donchev, V. Ivanova, A. V. Sergeyev, N. Tungalag Detection of the YORP Effect from Photometric Observations of Near-Earth Asteroids 58
N. N. Gorkavyi, A. N. Rublevsky, V. V. Prokofjeva-Mihajlovskaya The Sizes of Impact Craters and Ejecta Spots on Asteroids 62
V. A. Shefer Method for High-accuracy Determinations of Orbits of Small Bodies from Three Observations 65
V. A. Shefer Determination of an Intermediate Perturbed Orbit from Range and Range Rate Measurements at Three Time Instances 70
M. D. Zamarashkina Improving the Orbital Parameters of Phobos and Deimos by Using the Universal Programming Complex ERA 75
E. I. Yagudina Databases for Observations and Orbit Elements for Asteroids and Comets in ERA System 79
A. L. Garca Automatic Detection of NEOs in CCD Frames 84
A. A. Golubov, Yu. N. Krugly YORP: Influence on Rotation Rate 90
Yu. V. Batrakov, V. V. Prokofjeva-Mikhajlovskaya, L. G. Karachkina The Small Libration of the Satellite in the System of the Asteroid 39 Laetitia 95
A. F. Zausaev, A. A. Zausaev, V. V. Abramov, S. S. Denisov Database Development for Solar System Small Bodies' Orbital Evolution Based on Modern Mathematical Models and Methods 102
A. A. Berezhnoy Analysis of the Systematic Errors of CCD-observations of Asteroids Performed in 2007 — 2008 107
M. S. Chubey, L. I. Yagudin, V. N. L'vov, S. D. Tsekmejster, V. V. Kouprianov, G. I. Eroshkin, E. A. Smirnov, A. V. Petrov Solving of the ACH Problem in the Project "Interplanetary Solar Stereoscopic Observatory" 110
M. Kocer, M. Honkova, J. Ticha, M. Tichy KLENOT Project — Contribution to Follow-up Astrometry of PHAs and VIs 115
V. V. Emel'yanenko Short-Period Comets: Origin and Terrestrial Impact Hazard 120
Yu. S. Bondarenko, Yu. D. Medvedev Method of Calculating Cometary Orbits 129
M. D. Zamarashkina, O. F. Ogneva Nongravitational Effects on Cometary Motion due to Jupiter 134
M. G. Ishmukhametova, E. D. Kondrat'eva, V. S. Usanin. Variation of Nongravitational Parameters for Comet Encke as a Result of its Decay 139
N. I. Perov, D. V. Kolesnikov On the Problem of Searching for Undiscovered Cometary Families Colliding with Terrestrial Type Planets 146
Yu. S. Bondarenko Electronic Catalogue of Comets "Halley" 152
O. G. Gladysheva From the Tunguska Space Body to the Evolution of the Protoplanetary Nebula 157
N. V. Kulikova, V. I. Tischenko Origin and Dynamic Evolution of Meteor Complexes in the Problem of Asteroid-Comet Hazard 164
E. N. Tikhomirova Meteor Streams: the Relation to Hazardous Celestial Bodies 168
M. I. Gritsevich Modern Dynamic Methods of Determination of Parameters of Meteor Bodies 174
G. A. Nikolsky, Yu. D. Medvedev, E. O. Schultz The Tunguska Catastrophe is the Consequence of a Series of Explosions of Comet Nucleus Fragments 179
O. G. Gladysheva Atmospheric Discharge in the Tunguska Disaster 184
T. Yu. Galushina, E. M. Drobyshevski, M. E. Drobyshevski In Searching for Comet P/Tunguska-1908 189
V. A. Alekseev, N. G. Alekseeva, I. G. Golovnev, S. Yu. Zheltov, A. I. Morgachev, E. Ya. Fal'kov Likely Impact Sites of Large Fragments of the Tunguska Cosmic Body 196
V. V. Svetsov Consequences of Impacts of Cosmic Objects in Circumstances of Changing Climate 200
An. G. Marchuk, K. V. Simonov, S. A. Peretokin Detection of Possible Impact Structures at the Bottom of the Ocean by Gravimetric and Magnetometric Data Processing 206
V. L. Masaitis Prospective Zones of Damage Caused by the Popigai Impact Event 211
N. A. Makhutov, Yu. G. Matvienko, M. A. Bubnov Hydrocode Modeling of a High-velocity Impact of an Asteroid Particle on a Steel Surface 216
L. A. Egorova, V. V. Lokhin Destruction Models for Bodies Entering a Planetary Atmosphere 222
V. K. Gusiakov, Z. A. Lyapidevskaya Expert Database on the Earth Impact Structures 228
V. A. Alekseev, V. V. Kopeikin, N. G. Alekseeva, L. Pelekhan Georadar and Hydrogen Studies of the Tunguska Meteorite Craters 233
E. V. Pitjeva Influence of Asteroids and Trans-Neptunian Objects on the Motion of Major Planets and Masses of the Asteroid Main Belt and the TNO Ring 237
D. K. Yeomans, S. R. Chesley, P. W. Chodas NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office 244
L. K. Kristensen Demands on Observation Campaigns for Accurate Predictions 255
Yu. D. Medvedev, A. S. Zabotin Determination of Orbits and Dispersion Ellipsoids of Asteroids Potentially Hazardous for the Earth 262
P. Kankiewicz, I Wodarczyk The Orbital Evolution of 2007 VA85, an Amor-type Asteroid on a Retrograde Orbit 268
V. A. Shor, Yu. A. Chernetenko, O. M. Kochetova How Precise is the Orbit of (99942) Apophis and how Probable is its Collision with the Earth in 2036? 272
L. L. Sokolov, N. P. Pitjev, V. Sh. Shaidulin About Zones of Resonant Returns of Asteroid Apophis 279
I. Wodarczyk. Methods of Computing Impact Orbit 284
Yu. A. Chernetenko. The Yarkovsky Effect in the Motion of NEAs 289
J. Desmars, J.- E. Arlot, A. Vienne Estimating the Accuracy of Asteroid Ephemerides Using the Bootstrap Method 294
I. Wodarczyk Paths of Risk of Selected Dangerous Asteroids 299
I. Wodarczyk Impact Solutions for Asteroid (101955) 1999RQ 302
N. B. Zheleznov The Study of the Probability of an Asteroid Collision with a Planet by Monte Carlo Method 305
A. W. Harris Estimating the NEO Population and Impact Risk: Past, Present and Future 312
M. F. A'Hearn Deep Impact and Deflection of NEOs 327
W. F. Huebner, D. C. Boice, P. Bradley, S. Chocron, R. Clement, A. Ghosh, P. T. Giguere, R. Goldstein, J. A. Guzik, L. N. Johnson, J. J. Keady, J. Mukherjee, W. Patrick, C. Plesko, M. Tapley, J. D. Walker, R. P. Weaver, K. Wohletz The Engagement Space for Countermeasures Against Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs) 337
C. Maccone. Description of a NASA Study to Deflect Hazardous Asteroids 347
A. V. Zaitsev, A. Koroteev, B. Liaschuk, S. Popov. The Level of Rapid Response Reaction of the Planetary Defense System 362
V. A. Emelyanov, Yu. K. Merkushev Design Parameters and Efficiency of a Space System for Warning about Small Celestial Bodies Approaching the Earth along Collision Trajectories 369
N. A. Makhutov, V. A. Puchkov, D. Reznikov, A. Taranov, A. V. Zaitsev About Measures on Minimization of Damage from Collisions with Asteroids and Nuclei of Comets 376
Z. M. Ilitz Rotational Mass Driver - an Efficient NEO Deflection Concept 381
J. J. Smulsky, Ya. J. Smulsky Evolution of Apophis Orbit for 1000 Years and New Space Targets 390
A. V. Zaitsev, A. A. Klapovsky On the Approach to Form Internati- onal-Legal Foundations to Ensure Planetary Defense 396
B. I. Semyonov, S. N. Torgovkin, V. V. Treckin, A. V. Zaitsev About the Interaction of the "Citadel" Planetary Defense System with the Missile-Space Defense Systems 402
The Resolution of the ACH-2009 Conference (doc) 407

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